Vote Miliband

Last September I put a £2 bet on David Miliband becoming the next leader of the Labour party at odds of 26-1. I was therefore quite pleased to read this in the Observer today:

Tony Blair has told his closest political allies that if David Miliband challenges Gordon Brown for the Labour leadership 'he will win'.

The explosive revelation came in a series of interviews with those closest to the outgoing Prime Minister. One member of his inner circle made it clear that the PM and his allies still think Brown can be beaten. 'I know what Tony thinks about this,' a senior Blairite who has been close to the Prime Minister since the Nineties told The Observer. 'He thinks that if David runs with conviction and mounts the right argument, he'll win. He'll win, because by the end of a leadership contest, the ground will move.'

A cabinet minister also confirmed that the Prime Minister had been discussing the possibility of a Miliband challenge with his closest allies. Blair's view, the minister said, was that if Miliband is to win 'he really has got to want it... He really has to go for it.'

The dramatic details of Blair's views on a succession race emerged as Brown's front-runner status received a boost from a party heavyweight. Jack Straw, Leader of the House of Commons, wrote to MPs saying he had decided to run Brown's leadership campaign. The Chancellor, he said, was 'supremely well qualified'. He vowed to run a unifying campaign seeking the support of 'the whole of the Labour party'.

Still, the fact that the Prime Minister is talking so openly about a possible challenge to Brown will cause anger in the Treasury. Blair has never confirmed whom he will back for the leadership when he resigns in the summer.

Although Miliband has always said he will not stand, one man who is thought to have the power to change his mind is Blair. Miliband, the 41-year-old Environment Secretary, is the former Head of the policy unit at Number 10, where he worked closely with Blair.

Miliband's odds have now dropped to around 9/1. The polls keep saying that if Gordon Brown is the next leader, the Conservatives/David Cameron will thrash Labour in the election, something of which Labour politicians will be increasingly aware. I saw Brown interviewed after the Budget last week and he looks and sounds dreadful on TV, especially when attempting to smile, which he seems incapable of doing without looking totally false and uneasy. He's also old, especially in comparison with Cameron.

Brown's still the runaway favourite but my two quid stake may yet yield a profit, I tells you...